Qualification scenarios: Advantage Delhi going into the final week

The league stage of the Ind T20 League 2022 is almost over and yet only Gujarat have confirmed their place in the playoffs. With 20 points to their name, Hardik Pandya & co are assured a top two finish, while the two most dominant sides of the tournament MUM & CHE - find themselves out of the reckoning. 

Here’s what each team needs to do to advance to the next round:

Rajasthan

Remaining Fixtures: vs CHE Brabourne Stadium- May 20 

Lucknow 

Remaining Fixtures: vs KOL DY Patil Stadium- May 18

A morale boosting win over Lucknow on Sunday has taken Rajasthan to second place and more or less has guaranteed them a spot in playoffs. All they need to avoid is a colossal defeat in their last league fixture which can take a massive toll on their Net Run Rate, if results align that way. Lucknow who were comfortably placed at the top of the league standings one week ago now have slipped to third after losing two games on the bounce. Like Rajasthan, they also need to avoid a huge defeat in their last league tie. 

For either to get knocked out, they would need to lose their final league game, Bangalore to outplay Gujarat and Delhi to get the better of Mumbai. In that case, four teams will be tied at 16 and the one with lesser Net Run Rate will be knocked out. Having said that, Bangalore has a net run rate of -0.323 and would need to beat GUJ by around 75 runs and would need LUC to lose by the same margin to go ahead on NRR. For RAJ, the same margin is around 80 runs.

LUC and RAJ’s top two finish is dependent on the results of their final league games. LUC will play Kolkata on May 18 whereas RAJ plays Chennai on May 20, giving the latter the advantage of knowing exactly what needs to be done to finish higher in the points table. 

Delhi

Remaining fixtures: vs MUM Wankhede Stadium- May 21  

Bangalore 

Remaining fixtures: vs GUJ Wankhede Stadium- May 19 

Dramatic wins over RAJ and PUN in their last two fixtures have revived Delhi’s chances of progressing to the playoffs. Their NRR of +0.255 is currently the best among the sides that have not yet reached 16 points and all they need is a win against Mumbai in their last league game. If both LUC and RAJ lose their final league games and DEL win theirs, then they will even have a shot at a top-two finish. They can even get through if they lose their final game provided GUJ humble BAN. 

After a humiliating 54 run defeat against PUN on May 13, BAN have made things difficult for themselves. A win alone might not be enough for them since their NRR is only -0.323 which is the lowest amongst all the teams who are in the playoffs race and are most likely to get eliminated if DEL defeat MUM in their final league game. The most ideal scenario for BAN without any NRR equations is them beating GUJ in their final game and DEL dropping points against MUM. In that case BAN gets to 16 points and everyone else stays at 14 points. 

If BAN want to get their NRR to a neutral territory of 0.000, they’ll have to beat GUJ by around 80 runs or around 10 overs to spare. 

Punjab 

Remaining Fixtures: vs HYD Wankhede Stadium- May 22 

Kolkata 

Remaining Fixtures: vs LUC DY Patil Stadium- May 18 

Hyderabad

Remaining Fixtures: vs MUM Wankhede Stadium- May 17; vs PUN Wankhede Stadium- May 22 

Both KOL and HYD could have got to a maximum of 14 points and had their fate out of their own hands ahead of the start of the last week of league fixtures. PUN also joined them with a defeat against DEL on Monday. Should either DEL beat MUM or BAN defeat GUJ, all three teams will be knocked out irrespective of their remaining results. The ideal scenario for all the three teams is to win their remaining games, BAN lose to GUJ, DEL lose to MUM and stay on 14 points. In that case NRR will come into picture. The team that has a higher NRR will go through to the playoffs. Hyderabad take the field against Punjab in their last league game of the season and only one of them can reach the 14 points mark. Kolkata has the best NRR among the three and is best placed to qualify in case of a 14 point tie. For KOL to go past DEL should the 14 points tie come into play, DEL would have to lose their final league match by 12 runs (provided they concede 180 runs) and KOL need to win theirs by the same margin.       

DEL play their final game on Saturday after BAN and KOL will play theirs. So, they will know the exact equation required to qualify.