What is India’s Test Championship Final scenario after Australia’s win in Indore Test?

The third test of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy finished early in two and a half days, just like the first two tests. The Australian team clinched the match before lunch and got their first smile of the tour. Now the visitors are trailing by 2-1 in the four-match test series, yet they successfully qualify for the Test championship finale, which will occur in June this year. After this victory of the Aussies, the series' fourth and last test is now a do-or-die match for the hosts if they want to qualify on their own.

India vs. Australia Test series will conclude in a stalemate if Australia once again outperforms India in the last Test. If Sri Lanka defeats New Zealand 2-0 in this situation, they will advance to the Test mace or championship game. Sri Lanka must defeat the Kiwis in the series; however, Sri Lanka cannot move up to the second position in the Test Championship points table with a 1-0 win or a 1-1 draw.

India just need to win in Ahmedabad to qualify. Yet a defeat or a draw would force them to depend on New Zealand to advance on Sri Lanka. This is because the only other team that may go to the Test Championship final at India's cost is Sri Lanka. So new Zealand should defeat or draw Sri Lanka in at least one of the two Tests if India loses or ties the test in Ahmedabad.

If the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy ends with a 2-1 result and Sri Lanka beats New Zealand by 0-2, then Sri Lanka will go through. India would thus want to win the series 3-1 and advance alone to the championship game. But even if India cannot achieve that, they may take some solace in knowing that New Zealand has a strong home record and recently held England to a 1-1 draw. It won't be simple for Sri Lanka to win 2-0, particularly considering their previous Test results.

So, the result of the Sri Lanka vs. New Zealand series will significantly impact India's ability to advance to the Test final. Of course, it would be difficult for Sri Lanka to sweep New Zealand in the series since they will be playing on foreign soil. Yet, in a game of cricket, anything may happen.