Team India’s Test Championship final possibilities after AUS vs. SA test series

On the 8th of January 2023, Australia won the three-match test series against South Africa by 2-0. Only three more Test series, including eight matches, will be played before the Test Championship 2021–2023 final in June 2023, bringing the cycle to an end. Nine teams have engaged in bilateral matches throughout the arduous two years of the longest-running cricket competition. Although, after a long cycle, we now have some clarity about the finalists of this year’s Test Championship.

After Sunday's Sydney Test, Australia defeated South Africa 2-0 in the series. As a result, they now hold the first spot in the rankings with 75.56% of the points. South Africa is in fourth position with 48.72% points, Sri Lanka is in third with 53.33% points, and India is in second with 58.93% points.

Before the finals, three test series, including eight matches, are yet to be played. These series will be played between hosts India against Australia (4 tests), New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka (2 tests), and South Africa against Windies (2 tests). If Men in Blue wants to play their consecutive second Test Championship Final, they have the following scenarios:

Regardless of the outcomes of the other two Test series in the cycle, India would unquestionably qualify for the finals of the Championship if they win the four-match Test series against Australia by a score of 4-0, 3-0, or 3-1.

India would end with 45.4% of the possible points and be eliminated from contention for the finals if Rohit Sharma and company allowed Australia to sweep the series, falling 0-4 overall.

With a 2-1 victory, India will have a final points percentage of 58.8%. It will be worth 60.65% if they win by 2-0 and 56.94% if they win by 1-0. South Africa would lose the qualification chances in such a case. However, the success of Sri Lanka in the New Zealand test series would be crucial to India's hopes. India can go further if Sri Lanka only wins one Test in New Zealand. India will undoubtedly play the final if Sri Lanka loses both Test matches. But if Sri Lanka wins 2-0, they will go to the championship game.

If team India ties the series 2-2, they will have a points total of 56.4%. South Africa will surely be out of the race. If Sri Lanka loses the series, India will advance.

India will be very reliant on other teams if the series is lost by a score of 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, or 0-3. If India loses by a score of 0-1, their ultimate points percentage would be 51.39%, depending on Sri Lanka's and South Africa's outcomes.